NFL WEEK 16

You Cannot Be Serious

Flawed, depressing: Is New England at Baltimore the rich man's Minnesota at Cincinnati?

By Pete Tothero

pick NFL games even the weekend before Christmas. Because this is a priority in my life. How does that make sense? It does not. Santa, I already know—just leave the coal outside the door. Sorry.

Last week: 8-8
Season: 145-78
Of ESPN’s 13 “NFL Experts,” number who have a better record than me: 2
What that looks like:
The Great Ron Jaworski: 150-73
Some Guy Named KC Joyner: 147-66
False Prophet Pete Tothero: 145-78

SUNDAY

Miami Dolphins (8-6) at Buffalo Bills (5-9)

I owe Miami a debt of gratitude: last weekend they stopped Tom Brady from racking up yet another last-second victory enmeshed in some kind of refereeing mini-controversy only brought about by the fact that Brady’s current comeback strategy is to heave the ball into the end zone looking for pass interference calls. So sure, I’ll pay that debt of gratitude by buying in. Let’s go, Dolphins. (And I now nervously check the temperature differential between the game the Dolphins played in Miami last week—temp in the 80s—and the game they’re going to play in Buffalo today—temp in the meat-locker range?) Pick: Miami

Minnesota Vikings (4-9-1) at Cincinnati, You Never Change (9-5)

I can’t pick Minnesota on the road at Cincinnati, but good God, does picking Cincinnati throw me into existential ennui. One must pick Cincinnati to win this game—they are the better team. But are they a good team? No. Are they an admirable team? No. Did they play with heart last week, when they had an opportunity to move up in the playoff race and were facing a Steelers team in a down year? Not remotely. So then why is one picking them to win? Because this is the way our world works. We chose between flawed choices. Our country once chose between Dukakis and Bush. I can get my printer paper from Office Depot or Target. Week after week, I stumble from distasteful choice to pointless decision and back again as life unfurls its bland pageant. Minnesota at Cincinnati? Of course. Hurrah for life. Hurrah for living. Pick: Cincinnati

Indianapolis Colts (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-3)

Time for false psychology. The Chiefs are the better team, but I’m not going to pick them. Why? Because their last two games have been against Washington and Oakland, which means it has essentially been three weeks since the Chiefs faced a pro-level team. The Colts aren’t great, but when they execute their plays correctly and everyone tries hard, it’s going to come as a huge shock to Kansas City. They may go running to the sideline to breathlessly inform their coaches, "They’re like the Broncos! Oh crap, they’re like the Broncos!" But all they’ll mean is that the Colts have their helmets on correctly and are running plays. Not a single one of ESPN’s "NFL Experts" has picked the Colts in this game. I defy them with the following. Pick: Indianapolis

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10) at St. Louis Rams (6-8)

Wake me when it’s over. Pick: St. Louis

Cleveland Browns (4-10) at New York Jets (6-8)



Watch the above clip ten times. That’s how I feel about the fact that I have to pick this game. Pick: New York Jets

Dallas Cowpokes (7-7) at Washington Father, Son, and Cousins (3-11)

Jerry Jones and Dan Snyder, two of the more idiotic owners in the league, will both be in attendance at this game. Is there a way we can arrange for both teams to lose? No? Shoot. Fine. Pick: Dallas

New Orleans Saints (10-4) at Carolina Panthers (10-4)

The thing that’s going on here is that Sean Payton knows what Ron Rivera is doing. I truly believe that. These teams aren’t far apart in quality, but New Orleans embarrassed Carolina a couple weeks ago to a degree that suggests there’s another dynamic at play. This game is outdoors, in Carolina, New Orleans looked awful last week...I can see picking Carolina. But Rivera is like a guy learning to do use his rooks correctly. That’s cool, and it can keep you in some chess matches long enough that the other guy screws up. But Payton already knows all about that stuff, and he knows how to use the other pieces, too. Pick: New Orleans

Tennessee Titans (5-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-10)

I have picked every NFL game, all season long, for an artsy booksy website.



Pick: Tennessee

Denver Paper Broncos (11-3) at Houston Texans (2-12)

Peyton Manning isn’t mobile and the Texans have J.J. Watt. Case Keenum is a decent quarterback and the Broncos defensive backs are weak. Look for the Broncos to struggle here more than you might think. Pick: Denver

New York Medicine (5-9) at Detroit Patients (7-7)

Boy, the Giants are just what the doctor ordered—if the patient is a professional football team and the doctor prescribes professional football teams to other professional football teams as if a professional football team could be of medicinal value to another professional football team. Which is totally bizarre and, one assumes, illegal. Pick: Detroit

Arizona Cardinals (9-5) at Seattle Seahawks (12-2)

I don’t pick against Seattle at home anymore, regardless of circumstance. I just don’t. Pick: Seattle

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-8) at Green Bay Packers (7-6-1)

The Packers benefited from a Romo meltdown last week, but you can’t keep relying on that stuff. The Steelers looked like champion barroom brawlers in their game against Cincinnati last week, and they’re still mathematically alive in the playoff race. If Miami wins in the morning and eliminates the Steelers from the wild card, they could come out sad here. I’ve already picked the Dolphins to win, so it would be logically consistent for me to believe the Steelers will be eliminated by mid-day, and the Packers will have more to play for here and therefore prevail. The critical flaw in that theory, though, is that the NFL is not logical. I therefore intentionally pick illogically. Pick: Pittsburgh

Oakland Raiders (4-10) at San Diego Chargers (7-7)

The weather will be fine in San Diego and Philip Rivers will light up the scoreboard and we’ll all wonder if San Diego is maybe kind of good, but they won’t be. They’ll just be beating Oakland at home in the sunshine. Pick: San Diego

New England Patriots (10-4) at Baltimore Ravens (8-6)

Please see my Minnesota at Cincinnati analysis—because this game is the rich man’s Minnesota at Cincinnati. Pick: Baltimore

Chicago Bears (8-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-6)

Who can say? I have no idea what to expect from these teams. The weirder issue in play is that due to other playoff implications, it’s possible this game will become meaningless for both of these teams—they could end up in division-winner-deciding games next week regardless of a win or loss here. There are too many variables. I’m just going to go with the home team, but with neither confidence nor enthusiasm. Pick: Philadelphia

MONDAY

Atlanta Falcons (4-10) at San Francisco 49ers (10-4)

The 49ers are looking mean lately, which makes this game my Christmas gift—an easy pick! Merry Christmas, everyone. Pick: San Francisco